113 Thornton Ln

Newtown, PA 18940

$1,149,900F

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,945 sqft · Built 2024 · Townhouse · Active · 101 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,276/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$6,030
• Tax + insurance: −$1,612
• HOA: −$242
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$688
• Net cashflow: $-5,296/mo
• Annual: $-63,554/yr
• Cap rate: 0.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -19.74%
• DSCR: 0.12
• 1% rule: 0.28%
• Cash to close: $321,972

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $1.15M. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-64k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (76.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $328k (71.5% below list).
• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($1.05M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $272k (76.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $8k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $34k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#163 in PA, #1,356 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Council Rock SD (suburban): math 56% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #36 of 539 in PA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 663 units permitted in Bucks County in 2024 (106 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bucks County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 0.8% vs local median 1.9% in Newtown — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 76% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.