9 Lincoln St

Sag Harbor, NY 11963

$3,995,000C-

7 bd · 6.5 ba · 4,974 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Active · 137 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $29,623/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$20,950
• Tax + insurance: −$6,658
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,221
• Net cashflow: $-4,206/mo
• Annual: $-50,474/yr
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.51%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $1,118,600

Investor read

• This is a 7-bed/6.5-bath single-family listed at $4.00M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-50k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $3.39M (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.96M (25.8% below list).
• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($3.52M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.96M (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $395k of equity ($28k loan paydown + $367k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#427 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Sag Harbor Union Free School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #175 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 66 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $500k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $1.36M; list at $4.00M implies a 194% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$633k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $29,623/mo this rent would consume 278% of the median local household income ($128k/yr) (locally 95% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.