19248 Red Argan Ct

Houston, TX 77073

$215,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,986 sqft · Built 2017 · SingleFamily · Active · 123 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,897/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$622
• HOA: −$71
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $-322/mo
• Annual: $-3,867/yr
• Cap rate: 4.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.42%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-322 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (26.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (11.8% below list).
• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $158k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $29 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 159 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?