44 Incline Dr

Evanston, WY 82930

$160,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,110 sqft · Built 1982 · Townhouse · Pending · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,273/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$105
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $-45/mo
• Annual: $-539/yr
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.20%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-539/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $152k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (20.4% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#112 in WY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Uinta County School District #1 (town): math 54% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #17 of 41 in WY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 50 units permitted in Uinta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Uinta County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.9% in Evanston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.