1409 Nelson St St

Vinton, LA 70668

$129,720B-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,014 sqft · Built 2021 · Manufactured · Pending · 173 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,496/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$680
• Tax + insurance: −$223
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $278/mo
• Annual: $3,340/yr
• Cap rate: 9.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.39%
• DSCR: 1.51
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $36,322

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $278 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($897 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#173 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Calcasieu Parish (other): math 30% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #29 of 98 in LA (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 1,298 units permitted in Calcasieu Parish in 2024 (526 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Calcasieu County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (2.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.