17086 Esperanza Dr

Lake Mathews, CA 92570

$340,000F

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Active · 302 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,649/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax + insurance: −$430
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $-120/mo
• Annual: $-1,442/yr
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.51%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $95,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $340k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-120 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $319k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (22.1% below list).
• It's been on market 302 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $265k (22.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,102 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Val Verde Unified (suburban): math 28% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #820 of 1,400 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 205 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 1.9% in Lake Mathews — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 302 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.