4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,035 sqft ·
Built 1966
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 123 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,488/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,575
Tax + insurance
−$848
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$943
Net cashflow
$123/mo
Annual
$1,476/yr
Cap rate
6.59%
Cash-on-cash
1.07%
DSCR
1.05
1% rule
0.91%
Cash to close
$137,508
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $491k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $123 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $449k (8.6% below list).
It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($432k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $432k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 79/100 on livability (#123 in NY, #2,002 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime C-, cost of living F.
Hempstead Union Free School District (suburban): math 27% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #567 of 590 in NY (top 96%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Jackson Main Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 495 students, 74% FRL); Alverta B Gray Schultz Middle School (math 11% / reading 27%, grade F, #688 of 729 statewide, top 94%, 938 students, 73% FRL); Hempstead High School (math 50% / reading 69%, grade C+, #851 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 1,866 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools at 70% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Current owner paid $392k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 5.1% in Hempstead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $4,488/mo this rent would consume 58% of the median local household income ($93k/yr) (locally 2535% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-7SX2JE0KG0DZGG
· Data 23 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29