809 Dover St

Tallahassee, FL 32304

$172,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Active · 119 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,374/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$902
• Tax + insurance: −$161
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $22/mo
• Annual: $263/yr
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.55%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $48,160

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $172k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22 ($263/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (20.1% below list).
• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $137k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#19 in FL, #429 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D.
• Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: John G Riley Elementary School (math 11% / reading 18%, grade F, #2,137 of 2,144 statewide, top 100%, 528 students, 81% FRL); Griffin Middle School (math 16% / reading 25%, grade F, #556 of 571 statewide, top 98%, 532 students, 77% FRL); Leon High School (math 52% / reading 60%, grade C, #131 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 1,935 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 45% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Leon average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 142 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $139k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.2% in Tallahassee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $1,374/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($32k/yr) (locally 6995% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.