805 Mariners Cir

St. Simons, GA 31522

$533,900D+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,772 sqft · Built 2017 · Townhouse · Active · 174 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,818/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,800
• Tax + insurance: −$1,055
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,012
• Net cashflow: $-49/mo
• Annual: $-588/yr
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.03%
• DSCR: 1.13
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $149,492

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $534k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-588/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $525k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $482k (9.8% below list).
• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($470k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $470k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Glynn County (other): math 37% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #47 of 174 in GA (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: St. Simons Elementary School (math 64% / reading 57%, grade B-, #123 of 1,228 statewide, top 10%, 523 students, 48% FRL); Glynn Middle (math 42% / reading 58%, grade C, #68 of 470 statewide, top 15%, 815 students, 51% FRL); Glynn Academy (math 45% / reading 42%, grade F, #50 of 424 statewide, top 12%, 1,823 students, 41% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 579 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 734 units permitted in Glynn County in 2024 (136 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Glynn County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 1.7% in St. Simons — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,818/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($109k/yr) (locally 339% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.