3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,204 sqft ·
Built 1910
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 79 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,690/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$734
Tax + insurance
−$327
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$355
Net cashflow
$274/mo
Annual
$3,287/yr
Cap rate
9.21%
Cash-on-cash
10.42%
DSCR
1.46
1% rule
1.21%
Cash to close
$39,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $274 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $436 of equity ($968 loan paydown + $-532 appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#462 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
Salem City School District (town): math 6% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #464 of 472 in NJ (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 95 units permitted in Salem County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Salem County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $80k; list at $140k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-0.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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