3 bd · 2.5 ba ·
2,453 sqft ·
Built 1986
· Condo
· Active
· 20 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$8,316/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$6,686
Tax + insurance
−$1,662
HOA
−$750
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,746
Net cashflow
$-2,529/mo
Annual
$-30,344/yr
Cap rate
3.91%
Cash-on-cash
-8.50%
DSCR
0.62
1% rule
0.65%
Cash to close
$357,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $1.27M.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-30k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $828k (35.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $832k (34.8% below list).
It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.26M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $828k (35.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $104k of equity ($9k loan paydown + $95k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#449 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety D-.
Herricks Union Free School District (suburban): math 86% / reading 84% proficiency, ranked #26 of 590 in NY (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Zoned schools: Herricks Middle School (math 76% / reading 84%, grade A+, #28 of 729 statewide, top 4%, 1,079 students, 17% FRL); Herricks High School (math 100% / reading 82%, grade A+, #226 of 1,100 statewide, top 21%, 1,433 students, 18% FRL).
Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$167k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 1.3% in North Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-7VANM03HWF7E50
· Data 11 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29