4144 Socata Ct

Cross Plains, TN 37049

$438,900D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,744 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Active · 98 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,700/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,302
• Tax + insurance: −$378
• HOA: −$65
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-612/mo
• Annual: $-7,343/yr
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.98%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $122,892

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $439k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-612 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $331k (24.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (38.5% below list).
• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($399k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $270k (38.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $47k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#197 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Robertson County (rural): math 22% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #82 of 139 in TN (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: East Robertson Elementary (math 31% / reading 27%, grade F, #461 of 952 statewide, top 49%, 536 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 42% district-wide (42 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 983 units permitted in Robertson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Robertson County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $71k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$75k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 1.8% in Cross Plains — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.