2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,440 sqft ·
Built 1978
· Manufactured
· Active
· 164 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,875/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$420
Tax + insurance
−$133
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$394
Net cashflow
$928/mo
Annual
$11,139/yr
Cap rate
20.22%
Cash-on-cash
49.73%
DSCR
3.21
1% rule
2.34%
Cash to close
$22,400
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $928 ($11k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#658 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, commute B+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
Selma Unified (town): math 20% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #250 of 517 in CA (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 20.2% vs local median 4.8% in Selma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Moderate: exterior siding
— Weathered and discolored
Moderate: kitchen cabinets
— Old and dated
Moderate: bathroom fixtures
— Old and dated
Minor: landscaping
— Overgrown areas
CashFlowRE · CFR-7VMA9J3650J5VY
· Data 4 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29