2778 Otisco Valley Rd

Marcellus, NY 13110

$239,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,748 sqft · Built 1890 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,020/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax + insurance: −$603
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-266/mo
• Annual: $-3,188/yr
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.75%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $67,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-266 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (19.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (15.8% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $193k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#137 in NY, #2,160 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Marcellus Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #249 of 590 in NY (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: K C Heffernan Elementary School (math 72% / reading 72%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 420 students, 17% FRL); C S Driver Middle School (math 38% / reading 59%, grade C-, #300 of 729 statewide, top 41%, 521 students, 23% FRL); Marcellus High School (math 92% / reading 24%, grade C, #879 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 466 students, 20% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?