4 bd · 3.0 ba ·
2,453 sqft ·
Built 1973
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 5 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$5,739/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$3,802
Tax + insurance
−$650
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,205
Net cashflow
$82/mo
Annual
$986/yr
Cap rate
6.43%
Cash-on-cash
0.49%
DSCR
1.02
1% rule
0.79%
Cash to close
$203,000
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $725k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $82 ($986/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $574k (20.8% below list).
Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $574k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $22k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 68/100 on livability (#500 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Bauder Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 644 students, 28% FRL); Seminole High School (math 26% / reading 47%, grade F, #351 of 667 statewide, top 54%, 1,546 students, 39% FRL).
Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $375k; list at $725k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 1.1% in Redington Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-7VTCVD73FE124D
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29