3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,048 sqft ·
Built 1914
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 24 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,150/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$157
Tax + insurance
−$97
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$242
Net cashflow
$655/mo
Annual
$7,857/yr
Cap rate
32.57%
Cash-on-cash
93.85%
DSCR
5.18
1% rule
3.85%
Cash to close
$8,372
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $655 ($8k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $29k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $897 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Grove Patterson Academy Elementary School (math 47% / reading 66%, grade C+, #761 of 1,584 statewide, top 48%, 403 students, 38% FRL); Waite High School (math 12% / reading 24%, grade F, #687 of 781 statewide, top 88%, 997 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 19% FRL vs 72% district-wide (53 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 20% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Toledo City average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price; built in 1914 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 118 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $15k; list at $30k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.4% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 32.6% vs local median 7.5% in Toledo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1914 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-7VWJGKFEVFVNTK
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29