5 S State St

Ripley, NY 14775

$199,999C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,845 sqft · Built 1890 · MultiFamily · Active · 211 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,782/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$233
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $126/mo
• Annual: $1,511/yr
• Cap rate: 7.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.70%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive. Per door: $63/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (10.9% below list).
• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (6.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,055 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Ripley Central School District (rural): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #651 of 755 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $200k implies a 1500% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (6.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?