3 bd · 3.0 ba ·
1,498 sqft ·
Built 1978
· Land
· Active
· 77 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,832/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,259
Tax + insurance
−$320
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$385
Net cashflow
$-132/mo
Annual
$-1,578/yr
Cap rate
6.26%
Cash-on-cash
-0.11%
DSCR
0.99
1% rule
0.76%
Cash to close
$67,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $240k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-132 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $217k (9.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (23.7% below list).
It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $183k (23.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#110 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Elgin (rural): math 29% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #38 of 270 in OK (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Elgin Es (math 36% / reading 33%, grade F, #168 of 845 statewide, top 24%, 945 students, 0% FRL); Elgin Ms (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #49 of 345 statewide, top 15%, 791 students, 0% FRL); Elgin Hs (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #42 of 447 statewide, top 10%, 771 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 29% district-wide (29 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 133 units permitted in Comanche County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Comanche County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
Current owner paid $145k; list at $240k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 1.2% in Medicine Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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