2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,430 sqft ·
Built 1989
· Manufactured
· Active
· 74 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,769/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$970
Tax + insurance
−$142
HOA
−$105
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$371
Net cashflow
$181/mo
Annual
$2,173/yr
Cap rate
7.47%
Cash-on-cash
4.20%
DSCR
1.19
1% rule
0.96%
Cash to close
$51,772
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $181 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (4.3% below list).
It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $174k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 68/100 on livability (#526 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Floral Avenue Elementary School (math 36% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,609 of 2,144 statewide, top 77%, 611 students, 56% FRL); Bartow Middle School (math 33% / reading 36%, grade F, #421 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 1,046 students, 63% FRL); Bartow Senior High School (math 26% / reading 46%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 2,125 students, 44% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 392 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask is 6% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
Current owner paid $80k; list at $185k implies a 131% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
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· Data 3 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29