1228 Shell Ct NE

Palm Bay, FL 32907

$134,900C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1971 · Manufactured · Active · 90 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,858/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax + insurance: −$341
• HOA: −$165
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $254/mo
• Annual: $3,048/yr
• Cap rate: 8.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.07%
• DSCR: 1.36
• 1% rule: 1.38%
• Cash to close: $37,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $254 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#366 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lockmar Elementary School (math 45% / reading 53%, grade D, #1,134 of 2,144 statewide, top 54%, 583 students, 58% FRL); Southwest Middle School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 920 students, 58% FRL); Palm Bay Magnet Senior High School (math 25% / reading 37%, grade F, #429 of 667 statewide, top 65%, 1,486 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 43% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Brevard average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 750 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.