2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
840 sqft ·
Built 1977
· Land
· Pending
· 16 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,737/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$288
Tax + insurance
−$33
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$365
Net cashflow
$1,051/mo
Annual
$12,613/yr
Cap rate
29.23%
Cash-on-cash
81.91%
DSCR
4.64
1% rule
3.16%
Cash to close
$15,400
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $55k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $54k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#272 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
Redmond SD 2J (town): math 24% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #28 of 58 in OR (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 731 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,624 units permitted in Deschutes County in 2024 (391 in 5+ unit buildings).
Deschutes County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 29.2% vs local median 1.5% in Eagle Crest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-7X3GW7A3NEC607
· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29