3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
863 sqft ·
Built 1986
· SingleFamily
· Under Contract
· 127 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$960/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$420
Tax + insurance
−$133
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$202
Net cashflow
$206/mo
Annual
$2,468/yr
Cap rate
9.38%
Cash-on-cash
11.02%
DSCR
1.49
1% rule
1.20%
Cash to close
$22,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $206 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($960 rent vs $80k).
It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $4k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.3% local appreciation)).
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#757 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Carbondale Chsd 165 (urban): math 26% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #279 of 620 in IL (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Carbondale Comm H S (math 26% / reading 35%, grade F, #175 of 693 statewide, top 26%, 997 students, 0% FRL).
Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 130 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (4.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-7X5TGZ2X9WYD3P
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29