556 Eastwood Dr

Grand Junction, CO 81504

$345,000F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,204 sqft · Built 2006 · Manufactured · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,205/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax + insurance: −$265
• HOA: −$5
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $-338/mo
• Annual: $-4,054/yr
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.20%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $96,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $345k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-338 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (17.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (36.1% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $220k (36.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#15 in CO, #2,222 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Mesa County Valley School District No. 51 (suburban): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #43 of 86 in CO (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fruitvale Elementary School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #568 of 966 statewide, top 60%, 412 students, 59% FRL); Bookcliff Middle School (math 18% / reading 26%, grade F, #188 of 270 statewide, top 72%, 449 students, 59% FRL); Central High School (math 19% / reading 43%, grade F, #229 of 381 statewide, top 60%, 1,613 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 39% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 288 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in Mesa County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $279k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.1% in Grand Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.