3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,040 sqft ·
Built 1965
· Other
· Pending
· 24 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$960/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$393
Tax + insurance
−$70
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$201
Net cashflow
$295/mo
Annual
$3,545/yr
Cap rate
11.03%
Cash-on-cash
16.90%
DSCR
1.75
1% rule
1.28%
Cash to close
$20,972
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $75k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $295 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($960 rent vs $75k).
It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#212 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
Mountain View-Birch Tree R-III (rural): math 41% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #158 of 324 in MO (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Mountain View Elem. (math 40% / reading 41%, grade F, #525 of 1,115 statewide, top 47%, 404 students, 55% FRL); Liberty Middle (math 37% / reading 38%, grade F, #215 of 391 statewide, top 56%, 301 students, 67% FRL); Liberty Sr. High (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B-, #28 of 521 statewide, top 6%, 341 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 53 units permitted in Howell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Howell County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 3.9% in Mountain View — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-7Y065Q1GFN9RM0
· Data 3 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29