3816 Candlelight Dr

Jefferson City, MO 65109

$510,000B

60 bd · 30.0 ba · 4,100 sqft · Built 1986 · MultiFamily · Pending · 81 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $8,670/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,674
• Tax + insurance: −$414
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,821
• Net cashflow: $3,761/mo
• Annual: $45,127/yr
• Cap rate: 15.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.60%
• DSCR: 2.41
• 1% rule: 1.70%
• Cash to close: $142,800

Investor read

• This is a 6 × 10-bed/5.0-bath units multifamily listed at $510k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($45k/yr) — positive. Per door: $627/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($9k rent vs $510k).
• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($479k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $479k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#7 in MO, #838 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Jefferson City (urban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #121 of 324 in MO (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.2%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 173 units permitted in Cole County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cole County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $143k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 3.7% in Jefferson City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $8,670/mo this rent would consume 139% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 984% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.