4714 N US Hwy 271

Gilmer, TX 75644

$234,900D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,944 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 141 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,466/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$653
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $-727/mo
• Annual: $-8,724/yr
• Cap rate: 2.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.26%
• DSCR: 0.41
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $65,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-727 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $133k (43.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (37.6% below list).
• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $133k (43.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,257 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Union Hill ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #814 of 1,141 in TX (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 34 units permitted in Upshur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Upshur County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 48% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.