507 S Bismark St

Concordia, MO 64020

$164,900C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,160 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 125 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,545/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$324
• Net cashflow: $245/mo
• Annual: $2,942/yr
• Cap rate: 8.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.37%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $46,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $245 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (6.3% below list).
• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#207 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Concordia R-II (rural): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #109 of 324 in MO (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Lafayette County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lafayette County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $165k implies a 266% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.