3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,246 sqft ·
Built 1874
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 100 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,561/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$944
Tax + insurance
−$439
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$538
Net cashflow
$640/mo
Annual
$7,681/yr
Cap rate
10.56%
Cash-on-cash
15.24%
DSCR
1.68
1% rule
1.42%
Cash to close
$50,400
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $640 ($8k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).
It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $164k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1874 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 59 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $118k; list at $180k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.9% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
At $2,561/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 818% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1874 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-7ZSH3H5BWEK1N3
· Data 4 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29