3825 Vigilante Dr

Great Falls, MT 59405

$90,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Active · 286 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,734/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$825
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-77/mo
• Annual: $-925/yr
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.67%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 1.93%
• Cash to close: $25,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-77 ($-925/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $79k (12.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• It's been on market 286 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#19 in MT, #2,473 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Great Falls H S (urban): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #79 of 116 in MT (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Morningside School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #135 of 293 statewide, top 52%, 206 students, 0% FRL); East Middle School (math 30% / reading 45%, grade F, #76 of 146 statewide, top 52%, 788 students, 0% FRL); Great Falls High School (math 21% / reading 33%, grade F, #75 of 132 statewide, top 57%, 1,641 students, 0% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 48% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 112 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 223 units permitted in Cascade County in 2024 (37 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cascade County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.5% in Great Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 286 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.