77 Ivy Cir

Lower Providence, PA 19403

$45,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 858 sqft · Built 2009 · Manufactured · Pending · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,040/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax + insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $1,264/mo
• Annual: $15,172/yr
• Cap rate: 40.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 120.41%
• DSCR: 6.36
• 1% rule: 4.53%
• Cash to close: $12,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $45k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Methacton SD (suburban): math 51% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #43 of 539 in PA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,936 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (530 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.