100 MANHATTAN Ave #413

Union City, NJ 07087

$315,000D+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 888 sqft · Built — · Condo · Active · 149 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,525/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$525
• HOA: −$1,854
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$740
• Net cashflow: $-1,246/mo
• Annual: $-14,949/yr
• Cap rate: 1.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -16.95%
• DSCR: 0.25
• 1% rule: 1.12%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $315k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (57.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $315k).
• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $135k (57.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#117 in NJ, #2,998 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: cost of living F.
• Union City School District (suburban): math 15% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #399 of 472 in NJ (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sara M. Gilmore Academy (math 45% / reading 68%, grade C+, #162 of 1,303 statewide, top 13%, 390 students, 57% FRL); Emerson Middle School (math 15% / reading 40%, grade F, #340 of 431 statewide, top 80%, 1,001 students, 87% FRL); Union City High School (math 12% / reading 35%, grade F, #331 of 399 statewide, top 83%, 3,025 students, 83% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 53% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 391 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 58d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,310 units permitted in Hudson County in 2024 (4,154 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hudson County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$54k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.5% vs local median 2.9% in Union City — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $3,525/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 57% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.