4624 Dyer Ct

Cave Spring, VA 24018

$315,000F

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,727 sqft · Built 1978 · Townhouse · Active · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,895/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$319
• HOA: −$144
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $-618/mo
• Annual: $-7,417/yr
• Cap rate: 3.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.41%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-618 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (34.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (39.9% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $189k (39.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#113 in VA, #3,513 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Roanoke County Public School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #9 of 131 in VA (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Oak Grove Elementary (math 77% / reading 77%, grade A, #171 of 1,108 statewide, top 17%, 415 students, 38% FRL); Hidden Valley Middle (math 76% / reading 83%, grade A+, #28 of 342 statewide, top 8%, 578 students, 26% FRL); Hidden Valley High (math 90% / reading 92%, grade A+, #5 of 319 statewide, top 1%, 830 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 333 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 360 units permitted in Roanoke County in 2024 (228 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Roanoke County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 9 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $210k; list at $315k implies a 50% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.