4713-4715 Natural Bridge Ave

St. Louis, MO 63115

$110,000B+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,652 sqft · Built 1914 · SingleFamily · Active · 267 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,548/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax + insurance: −$239
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $407/mo
• Annual: $4,886/yr
• Cap rate: 11.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.03%
• DSCR: 1.80
• 1% rule: 1.41%
• Cash to close: $30,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $110k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $407 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• It's been on market 267 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1914 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $1,548/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($31k/yr) (locally 1655% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 267 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1914 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — The roof appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.
• Major: exterior paint — The paint is peeling in some areas, indicating a need for repainting.
• Major: landscaping — The landscaping is overgrown and lacks maintenance, which is a major issue for curb appeal and property value.
• Major: interior walls and paint — No interior walls or paint are visible in the photos, but given the exterior condition, it is likely that the interior is in a similar state of disrepair.
• Major: HVAC/mechanicals — No HVAC or mechanical systems are visible in the photos, but given the exterior condition, it is likely that the HVAC and mechanical systems are in a similar state of disrepair.
• Minor: windows — The windows appear to be in fair condition, with no visible signs of damage or malfunction.