9300 Agee Rd

Semmes, AL 36575

$49,900B-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,650/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $992/mo
• Annual: $11,906/yr
• Cap rate: 30.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 85.21%
• DSCR: 4.79
• 1% rule: 3.31%
• Cash to close: $13,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $992 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#311 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Semmes Elementary School (math 37% / reading 63%, grade D+, #119 of 627 statewide, top 19%, 546 students, 51% FRL); Semmes Middle School (math 8% / reading 35%, grade F, #185 of 257 statewide, top 73%, 1,318 students, 68% FRL); Mary G Montgomery High School (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #211 of 305 statewide, top 69%, 1,965 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 185 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 30.2% vs local median 5.3% in Semmes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.