202 NW 20th Ave

Gainesville, FL 32609

$170,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 576 sqft · Built 1972 · SingleFamily · Active · 309 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,414/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$224
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $1/mo
• Annual: $15/yr
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.03%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($15/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (16.8% below list).
• It's been on market 309 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stephen Foster Elementary School (math 46% / reading 52%, grade D, #1,134 of 2,144 statewide, top 54%, 458 students, 65% FRL); Westwood Middle School (math 47% / reading 51%, grade C-, #265 of 571 statewide, top 48%, 847 students, 56% FRL); Gainesville High School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #154 of 667 statewide, top 24%, 1,873 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 309 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.