3501 Bray Ave

Columbia, MO 65203

$299,900D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,544 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,112/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$328
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-232/mo
• Annual: $-2,790/yr
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.32%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $83,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-232 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (13.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (29.6% below list).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $211k (29.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in MO, #862 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Columbia 93 (urban): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #194 of 324 in MO (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fairview Elem. (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #347 of 1,115 statewide, top 35%, 468 students, 28% FRL); Smithton Middle (math 37% / reading 47%, grade D-, #149 of 391 statewide, top 41%, 521 students, 26% FRL); David H. Hickman High (math 27% / reading 55%, grade F, #236 of 521 statewide, top 45%, 2,044 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 459 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,303 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (549 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Boone County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.9% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.