1001 N Randolph St #913

Arlington, VA 22201

$420,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 634 sqft · Built 2005 · Condo · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,994/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,203
• Tax + insurance: −$581
• HOA: −$608
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$839
• Net cashflow: $-236/mo
• Annual: $-2,831/yr
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.73%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.95%
• Cash to close: $117,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $420k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-236 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $378k (9.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $399k (4.9% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $378k (9.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#14 in VA, #387 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Arlington County Public School District (urban): math 65% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #8 of 131 in VA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Arlington Science Focus School (549 students, 12% FRL); Swanson Middle (math 75% / reading 83%, grade A+, #29 of 342 statewide, top 9%, 936 students, 19% FRL); Washington-Liberty High (math 70% / reading 87%, grade A-, #75 of 319 statewide, top 25%, 2,715 students, 24% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 153 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 621 units permitted in Arlington County in 2024 (429 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Arlington County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $361k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 1.7% in Arlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($145k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.