5701 Live Oak #43

Kelseyville, CA 95451

$60,000B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1978 · Manufactured · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,051/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax + insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $1,139/mo
• Annual: $13,666/yr
• Cap rate: 30.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 86.09%
• DSCR: 4.83
• 1% rule: 3.42%
• Cash to close: $16,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $58k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,059 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living D+, schools F.
• Kelseyville Unified (town): math 18% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,150 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 268 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $60k implies a 71% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 30.4% vs local median 2.2% in Kelseyville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: Kitchen cabinets — Dated appearance
• Moderate: Bathtub and fixtures — Dated appearance
• Moderate: Exterior siding — Aged appearance
• Moderate: Hardwood flooring — Worn appearance
• Moderate: Paint — Faded appearance
• Moderate: Landscaping — Overgrown and needs trimming