Carson V J Plan

Covington, LA 70435

$333,990D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,123 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 280 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,382/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,060
• Tax + insurance: −$655
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$710
• Net cashflow: $-43/mo
• Annual: $-518/yr
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.47%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $110,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $334k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-518/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $334k).
• It's been on market 280 days — a 12% lower offer ($294k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $294k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#17 in LA, #3,876 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• St. Tammany Parish (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #11 of 98 in LA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Covington Elementary School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #108 of 646 statewide, top 18%, 628 students, 59% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 20% / reading 37%, grade F, #119 of 218 statewide, top 57%, 635 students, 62% FRL); Covington High School (math 32% / reading 44%, grade F, #90 of 265 statewide, top 34%, 1,660 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 40% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 605 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,064 units permitted in St. Tammany Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• St. Tammany County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.2% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,382/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 280 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.