554 4th Ave Ave W

Thomaston, AL 36783

$79,900C+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,896 sqft · Built 1945 · SingleFamily · Active · 198 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,275/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax + insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $521/mo
• Annual: $6,252/yr
• Cap rate: 14.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.94%
• DSCR: 2.24
• 1% rule: 1.60%
• Cash to close: $22,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $521 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($552 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 47/100 on livability (#546 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marengo County (rural): math 20% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #69 of 129 in AL (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP.
• Marengo County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.