3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,096 sqft ·
Built 1961
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 178 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,255/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$603
Tax + insurance
−$103
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$264
Net cashflow
$285/mo
Annual
$3,422/yr
Cap rate
9.27%
Cash-on-cash
10.63%
DSCR
1.47
1% rule
1.09%
Cash to close
$32,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $285 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#9 in AL, #2,909 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
Tuscaloosa City (urban): math 19% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #74 of 129 in AL (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 306 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.3% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.4% in Tuscaloosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $1,255/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($29k/yr) (locally 3997% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-832RZTBCBP3ZXC
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29