3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,400 sqft ·
Built 1954
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 45 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,127/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,258
Tax + insurance
−$237
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$447
Net cashflow
$185/mo
Annual
$2,224/yr
Cap rate
7.22%
Cash-on-cash
3.31%
DSCR
1.15
1% rule
0.89%
Cash to close
$67,172
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $185 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (11.3% below list).
It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $213k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 81/100 on livability (#13 in MO, #1,373 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
Washington (town): math 41% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #46 of 324 in MO (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 199 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 614 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (100 in 5+ unit buildings).
Franklin County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $128k; list at $240k implies a 87% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.4% in Washington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-83GGH7247AY6VD
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29