28 Paul Pl

Buffalo, NY 14210

$249,900C

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,144 sqft · Built 1931 · MultiFamily · Pending · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,564/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$416
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$538
• Net cashflow: $299/mo
• Annual: $3,583/yr
• Cap rate: 7.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.12%
• DSCR: 1.23
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $69,972

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $299 ($4k/yr) — positive. Per door: $149/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $242k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1931 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.7%/yr); 94 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $250k implies a 316% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,564/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 959% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1931 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.