3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,487 sqft ·
Built 1997
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 3 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,099/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,390
Tax + insurance
−$354
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$441
Net cashflow
$-85/mo
Annual
$-1,022/yr
Cap rate
5.91%
Cash-on-cash
-1.38%
DSCR
0.94
1% rule
0.79%
Cash to close
$74,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-85 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (5.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (20.8% below list).
Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $210k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#252 in FL, #3,975 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Atwater Elementary (math 68% / reading 63%, grade B+, #500 of 2,144 statewide, top 24%, 802 students, 65% FRL); Woodland Middle School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade B, #164 of 571 statewide, top 30%, 978 students, 55% FRL); North Port High School (math 44% / reading 57%, grade D+, #171 of 667 statewide, top 26%, 2,562 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 42% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 852 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $205k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.8% in North Port — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-83QYEQ3X5KFZNM
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29