2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,351 sqft ·
Built 1999
· Condo
· Active
· 336 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,057/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,200
Tax + insurance
−$888
HOA
−$662
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$852
Net cashflow
$-545/mo
Annual
$-6,538/yr
Cap rate
5.95%
Cash-on-cash
-1.21%
DSCR
0.95
1% rule
0.97%
Cash to close
$117,460
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $420k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-545 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $323k (22.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $406k (3.3% below list).
It's been on market 336 days — a 12% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $323k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Lely Elementary School (math 45% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,247 of 2,144 statewide, top 59%, 499 students, 62% FRL); Lely High School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,504 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Collier average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 900 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $233k; list at $420k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $4,057/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 550% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 336 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29