2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
948 sqft ·
Built —
· Condo
· Pending
· 21 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,411/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,092
Tax + insurance
−$731
HOA
−$754
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$716
Net cashflow
$-883/mo
Annual
$-10,599/yr
Cap rate
3.84%
Cash-on-cash
-8.77%
DSCR
0.61
1% rule
0.85%
Cash to close
$111,720
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $399k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-883 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $380k (4.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $341k (14.5% below list).
It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($393k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $341k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Is 98 Bay Academy (math 96% / reading 96%, grade A+, #2 of 729 statewide, top 0%, 1,488 students, 63% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 22% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+13.1%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,063 units permitted in Kings County in 2024 (9,789 in 5+ unit buildings).
Kings County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $3,411/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 6011% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: bathroom fixtures
— Dated and possibly leaking
Minor: kitchen backsplash
— Worn and could be replaced
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· Data 1 week agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29