55 Academy Way

Tar Heel, NC 28392

$164,900D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Built 2001 · Manufactured · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,248/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $-14/mo
• Annual: $-170/yr
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.37%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $46,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-14 ($-170/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (24.3% below list).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $125k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#588 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bladen County Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #161 of 178 in NC (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Plain View Primary (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #694 of 1,410 statewide, top 53%, 183 students, 98% FRL); Tar Heel Middle (math 15% / reading 27%, grade F, #424 of 475 statewide, top 90%, 287 students, 99% FRL); West Bladen High (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #374 of 535 statewide, top 71%, 701 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 70% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 159 units permitted in Bladen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bladen County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.