18637 Piedra Dr

Oklahoma City, OK 73012

$244,850D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,501 sqft · Built 2007 · SingleFamily · Pending · 119 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,036/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax + insurance: −$398
• HOA: −$21
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-94/mo
• Annual: $-1,133/yr
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.65%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $68,558

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (16.9% below list).
• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $204k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#3 in OK, #1,635 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Deer Creek (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #4 of 270 in OK (top 2%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Grove Valley Es (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #132 of 845 statewide, top 19%, 554 students, 0% FRL); Deer Creek Hs (math 39% / reading 51%, grade D-, #13 of 447 statewide, top 3%, 2,036 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 626 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,365 units permitted in Oklahoma County in 2024 (569 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oklahoma County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.7% in Oklahoma City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?