3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
760 sqft ·
Built 1940
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 17 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,094/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$721
Tax + insurance
−$271
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$230
Net cashflow
$-128/mo
Annual
$-1,532/yr
Cap rate
5.18%
Cash-on-cash
-3.98%
DSCR
0.82
1% rule
0.80%
Cash to close
$38,500
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-128 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (16.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (20.4% below list).
It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $109k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $951 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 81/100 on livability (#63 in IA, #1,432 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
Des Moines Independent Community School District (urban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #289 of 289 in IA (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 227 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,953 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (540 in 5+ unit buildings).
Polk County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $95k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.1% in Des Moines — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-84F54Q45C9AYSM
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29