46946 Dingman Point Rd

Alexandria Bay, NY 13607

$104,900B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,648 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Pending · 296 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,290/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax + insurance: −$234
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $235/mo
• Annual: $2,817/yr
• Cap rate: 8.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.59%
• DSCR: 1.43
• 1% rule: 1.23%
• Cash to close: $29,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $235 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• It's been on market 296 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($725 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (8.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#915 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D+, health & safety D, crime F.
• Alexandria Central School District (rural): math 46% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #378 of 590 in NY (top 64%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $120k (53%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $105k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (8.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 296 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.